Market Commentary: November 2025
Investors continue to ride out market turbulence as post-shutdown fallout, conflicting economic data, and renewed speculation over the Fed’s next move fuel ongoing uncertainty and volatility. After months of steady gains, major indices fell sharply in early November. The Nasdaq dropped about 3.4%, losing $1.74 trillion in market value, while the S&P 500 slid 1.55% from late‑October highs. A modest rebound on Friday offered some relief, but the pullback highlighted how lofty valuations and heightened expectations have left markets vulnerable to disappointment. The top 10 S&P 500 stocks now make up 39.4% of the index, the highest concentration on record, raising concerns about market concentration. While AI enthusiasm has fueled mega‑cap tech to new highs, some investors are reassessing whether such valuations are sustainable.
The primary source of anxiety has been the lack of reliable economic data following a record 43-day government shutdown, which disrupted releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other agencies1. The blackout left the Fed, investors, and policymakers in the dark on inflation, employment, and overall economic health2. Market odds of a December rate cut fell from near-certainty in early October to below 50% by mid-November3, as some Fed officials voiced concern over persistent inflation while others pointed to signs of labor market stability4. Core inflation has improved slightly, easing to 3.0% in September from 3.1% in August, but remains above the Fed’s 2% target5.
Looking ahead, several key events in the coming week could shape the trajectory of year-end markets. Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report is expected to be a major catalyst, given its outsized role in AI infrastructure and broader market sentiment6. Investors will also be watching the resumption of delayed government data releases, including the September jobs report, housing starts, and industrial production7,8. These indicators, along with the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, may offer the first clear picture of the economy since late summer and provide critical input for December policy expectations.
The bottom line: As the holiday shopping season picks up, retailers report a mix of cautious but resilient consumer behavior. Against this backdrop, markets remain sensitive to whether upcoming data confirms a soft landing or reveals deeper economic strain. With recent volatility raising questions about the durability of the rally, the week ahead may help determine whether this is a brief pause or the beginning of a broader reset.
Sources:
1. CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/14/economy/federal-data-what-to-expect-economic-data
2. ABC News, https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/government-release-september-jobs-report-week-ending-data-127539471
3. CME Fed Watch Tool, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
4. Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/odds-fed-rate-cut-december-knifes-edge-hawks-doves-face-off-2025-11-13/
5. Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
6. Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/global-markets-global-markets-2025-11-17/
8. S&P Global, https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/week-ahead-economic-preview-week-of-17-november-2025.html
PlanWiser Financial, nor any of its members, are tax accountants or legal attorneys, and do not provide tax or legal advice. For tax or legal advice, you should consult your tax or legal professional. Tax services are offered independently through PlanWiser Tax. This is being provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all investing involves risk. Investment advisory services offered through PlanWiser Financial, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser.